haraka haraka haina baraka - hurry, hurry has no good fortune

Foreign Exchange : Today the US House is supposed to vote on the stimulus bill, now up to $816 billion. Then it goes to the Senate. Everybody and his brother is urging fast action.

There is an adage in Swahili, "haraka haraka haina baraka," meaning "hurry, hurry has no good fortune." Yes, the word "baraka" is the same root as Barack Obama’s name. It's a splendid adage and perfectly true. The stimulus package is likely to be a dog’s breakfast and it may not work. Even if it were carefully designed, it still might work and nobody can accuse the plan of being carefully designed. Experts don’t really know whether Roosevelt’s stimulus plans would have worked if the war had not come along. (Two recent books feature the uncomfortable fact that many of Roosevelt’s plans were really hatched by Hoover, by the way.)

But set aside doubts about the stimulus plan and even the upcoming Fed announements or the "bad bank" rumored for next week. The three big initiatives may be badly designed and may not work, but the market is starving for good news and optimism. Unfortuantely for trend-followers, optimism and a renewed appetite for risk are US dollar-negatives. The trend could be breaking.

Gee, that means we need more bad news if we want to be buy US Dollars - how bizarre is that?

Bye For Now

Barbara Rockefeller

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