We can't name the event that will end the US Dollar rally, but at a guess, we haven’t seen it yet.

Foreign Exchange Outlook: At last the Treasury and Fed have launched an initiative that the market likes and is responding to. At last the government is doing something about housing directly and not indirectly through credit default swaps or capital injections to banks. At last the government is listening to the market, since the structure of the TALF was something proposed by player (according to Market News). This is tremendously good news. Unable to force banks to lend—the one big missing ingredient in the Citi bailout and the earlier capital injections-the government has found a way to "incentivize" the banks. And it took only three months, if we count from end-August. For a country as big as the US with so many conflicting lumps of self-interest, this is actually not too bad.

Ironically and perversely, though, a workable initiative is dollar exchange rate negative, since it means global risk is down and opportunity is up. It’s nice to have greed plus fear back again and not just fear and fear, but some issues do remain-not the least of which is “Is it enough?”

We may get a hint today in the form of personal income and spending, with spending expected down a big 1% after -0.3% in Sept, according to the Bloomberg survey. Who ever heard of the US consumer reducing spending? We say the UK is about 9 months in front of the US on this and many other fronts. Household spending fell to a multi-year low in the UK and we probably have to expect it here, too. We also get data on durable goods order, new home sales and consumer confidence.

The other big factor is prospective interest rate cuts in the UK, Europe and US in December. Remember that rate cut were a currency favorable event in Australia (with the Australian Dollar exchange rate ralling) and the UK a few weeks ago, since they showed "responsiveness." If the ECB is seen as recalcitrant or dragging its heels, the euro exchange rate could get punished for that lack of responsiveness more than rewarded for having a favorable yield differential. (Foreign Exchange Traders dont need a reason to Sell Euros at the moment)

This is a topsy-turvy world.

Similarly, Foreign Exchange Traders will buy pounds if the Bank of England is aggressive, as seems likely. We are holding to our story that all the bad news is not out yet and any fresh instance of systemic failure will fall to the US dollars favor. This includes a retreat in equities, renewed weakness in commodities (especially oil), a big bank failure somewhere (anywhere), and so on. This doesn't even include all the terrible things that can happen in the political or natural world-riots, assassinations, earthquakes, and the like. It seems improbable that a giant rate cut in China will restore everything to conditions before. In fact, we think it really is a new era.

Downsizing is serious business.

We can't name the event that will end the US Dollar rally, but at a guess, we haven’t seen it yet.

Bye For Now

Barbara Rockefeller
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the US dollar is not a dead duck

Foreign Exchange Outlook: Risk aversion could come flying back in the window when we get two bits of data this morning, the Q3 GDP revision (8:30 am EST) and the Conference Board consumer confidence index (10 am EST). GDP will likely be rived from -0.3% to -0.5%, while the confidence index was probably steady at 38 in Nov, the same as Oct, according to the Bloomberg survey. This is not a deterioration but still the lowest since records began in 1967.

It’s notable that while we all hear Obama talking about infrastructure spending as a big component of the stimulus package, focus remains on the consumer. Even the finance guys at the Fed and Treasury moved from saving their buddies at the banks first to consumer credit second (not the housing sector, which would have been more logical). But consumer spending is not going to get us out of this thing. The only way for that to have been true would have been Helicopter Ben throwing $24,000 out of the sky for every person in the country. The Obama approach calls for the industrial sector to be revitalized by government spending, whether it’s wind farms or road-building.

This could be the post-industrial industrial revolution. Nobody has the slightest idea what it will look like, but given technology advances, it will probably result (in five-ten years) in a tremendous increase in labor market productivity. We tend to think of productivity as how many widgets a worker can churn out in an hour, but in practice, the US is a service economy and it runs on trucking. Better roads and bridges, together with an improved national electrical grid, are a tremendous injection of value into the economy (buy UPS and FedEx). Besides, it will be fun to see whether it’s really true, as we saw with Eisenhower’s interstate highway system, whether government is sometimes the solution and not always the problem, the old Reagan mantra.

This is to a certain extent the basis of the new optimism - one way or the other, all these experts, under Obama’s leadership, will fix things. Well, no. These are the same experts who may have warned us of impending doom but failed to get action (Summers) or to instigate action (Geithner). It ain’t over yet and nobody can even tell us what inning we are in. It’s the proverbial black swan situation and optimism-in the form of giant stock index rises-is unwarranted. We believe in trends. The Dow was up but has not reached red resistance. It could be an aberration. The same thing is true of oil, although gold has a pretty scary chart-two gap openings in a row.

Assuming more dismal new releases are out there waiting to hit us over the head with some calamity or another, the US dollar is not a dead duck. As noted above, the case for the dollar exchange rate demise has not yet been proven. We do not doubt that it will be one day, but not yet. Keep the faith.

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We guess the US dollar will survive this round, too

Foreign Exchange Outlook : Everyone is looking at institutional factors like the Citibank bailout and hardly anyone is looking at macroeconomic indicators, but today we get existing home sales, probably a drop by 3.5% to an annual pace of 5 million. It will be the biggest monthly drop since Sept 2007, according to the Bloomberg survey. In the absence of a plan to stabilize the foreclosure rate and housing prices, the focus is in institutional failure rather than the economic consequences of the data itself. This is US dollar exchange rate negative. But can it be overwhelmed by an Obama spending plan due this week? Yes, but perhaps only temporarily. Spending itself is not enough you need a wide, deep and intelligent plan that everyone can believe in. Already we are seeing “anti-Keynesian” diatribes. Poor Keynes. He is getting blamed for a lot of things he never said or recommended. He did not say "spend your head off, debt doesn’t matter." Of course debt matters.

Without going further down that ideological road, consider the advice from some currency gurus who say “buy currency of creditor countries (like Japan) and sell the currency of debtor countries (like the UK and US).” This is like buying stocks of companies whose book value is greater than their stock prices. But countries don’t have book values. What counts is not the balance sheet, but the ability to generate cash. And here we have to consider not only the government and its ability to tax, but also the ability of private institutions, mostly banks, to generate the cash to pay the monthly bills and survive one more month. In the US, the TED spread (the 3-month Treasury rate vs. interbank LIBOR) is widening out again to 216 bp (according to Bloomberg), from the low in May of 76 bp and the worst-case high of 464 bp on Oct 10. The Fed is making funds available to just about every central bank in the world, including the Swiss and the Mexicans, but who comes first? US banks.

Longer run, the US printing all that money is an evil thing that will come back to haunt us. But in the immediate futures, like this week and next, it’s a powerful argument for the safe-haven status of the US to continue. Institutionally, perhaps the US doesn’t deserve the crown of safe-haven. The US is blundering badly. But in this matter of the crisis, it is still the leader-liquidity comes before solvency. We can worry about credit quality later.

How much money are we talking about? Bloomberg added up all the government programs and arrives at a figure of $7.4 trillion, or about half of US GDP. “Bloomberg News tabulated data from the Fed, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and interviewed regulatory officials, economists and academic researchers to gauge the full extent of the government’s rescue effort.” The bailout includes the $700 billion in TARP; $2.4 trillion in commercial paper; $1.4 trillion from the FDIC to guarantee bank-to-bank loans; $29 for the JP Morgan takeover of Bear Stearns; $122.8 billion in addition to TARP allocations for AIG, and now $20 billion directly to Citi plus $306 billion of government guarantees for troubled mortgages and toxic assets.

Bloomberg writes “The money that’s been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. It’s nine times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to CBO figures. It could pay off more than half the country’s mortgages.” Moreover, the Fed is responsible for $4.4 trillion of pledges, or 60% of the total commitment of $7.4 trillion-this is what we should be worried about, not the $700 billion in TARP. Bloomberg is miffed because the government won’t disclose the collateral taken, with Bernanke calling it “unproductive” to disclose it.

It goes without saying that this is the biggest bailout ever, dwarfing the Chrysler version, the steel companies, the S&L’s, etc. Is it quibbling to ask whether it’s “investing” or “spending”? Probably not, since the rule of deleveraging together with bad credit quality means downsizing, i.e., permanent losses. We are all going to be made poorer by this, but in the end, what counts is the ability of the US government to sell the paper to get the money it needs to save Citibank and all the others. Can we do it? Yes. Britain is neck-and-neck on aggressive stimulus and other plans. Paulson did a bad job but the job is getting done. We guess the US dollar will survive this round, too.

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Barbara Rockefeller Foreign Exchange Trading
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US Dollar and consumer spending is about to fall off the cliff

Foreign Exchange Outlook : We don’t like it that stock markets are the dominant factor in the currency market. It makes for weird effects and puts hard economic data and a sane perspective on the economy in a secondary position. This week we get a plateful of data, including PPI and CPI for October, along with the NAHB housing market index and Philadelphia Fed survey for November. But if some important company reports bad earnings, even good numbers would be overshadowed. It’s dumb and it’s dangerous. The one thing it may prevent us seeing in deflation in the US, as in the UK.

Deflation and fear of deflation has a funny effect on people. We simply do not understand a world in which prices fall, companies fail, and GDP contracts. Most of all, we don’t understand it when the US consumer stops consuming but if the outlook for employment is as dire as we see in the Empire State report yesterday, consumer spending is about to fall off the cliff. The domino effects reach into the darkest corners of the world.

This morning we get the Treasury report on capital flows for Sept, which was the evil month in
which Lehman was allowed to go under. The August report had shown an outflow of $400 million after an outflow of $33.6 billion in July, despite an increase in foreign purchases of long-term Treasuries and repatriation by US investors. Market News notes that over the past five years, US investors bought nearly $1 trillion in overseas stocks and bonds, more than in the previous 25 years, so there remains a lot to come home if that is what is happening. Some strategists say this is the important factor behind the US dollars rise.

For reasons we don’t like, the dollar exchange rate is likely to do okay in the near future. For some reason, the US dollar is not being punished for incompetent government. As long as stocks continue to slide and scare everybody, the US dollar is a safe haven. And in the perspective of “it’s worse elsewhere,” we have yet to see the worst occur in places like China and other emerging countries. India is still forecasting high growth next year, for example. These guys just don’t get it. When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches not a cold, but pneumonia. At what point do we see geopolitical unrest arise because of slumping economies? If history is any guide, India and Pakistan should pick a fight with one another any day now.

Another factor is oil. Many countries have said $60 is the breakeven point at which social programs and subsidies have to be cut. Indonesia and Malaysia have already seen turmoil over this issue-what about Venezuela or Mexico?

Those who are long dollars should be careful what they wish for.

Bye for Now

Barbara Rockefeller
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BNP Paribas has a forecast of euro to dollar exchange rate to go to 1.07 by the end of Q1. Holy Toledo!

Foreign Exchange Outlook: The rest of the world is falling into recession faster and bigger than the US, which is to blame for the trigger events that started the recession in the first place. (Talking-head TV pundits said over the weekend that a lot of fingers were pointing blame at the US at the G-20 meeting.) The National Association for Business Economics says the US will still put in growth of 1.4% in 2008, sliding to a contraction of 0.2% in 2009. Compare to the UK with a peak-to-trough of 2.5%. On the quarterly basis, Q4 will contract at an annual pace of 2.6% and in Q1, by 1.3%-but then the US will resume growth of 0.5% in Q2. This improvement will mirror recovery in real estate/housing. Really? This implies the worst is nearly over. We'd have only 4 months to go (to Q2 next year). This must assume GM doesn’t blow up and that the Obama stimulus/rescue plan is really big and really successful (whatever it is) and that oil prices remain low and a few other assumptions that are probably unrealistic.

We get a dose of cold water today with the Empire State index from the New York Fed, probably a drop to -26 from -24.6 in Sept, according to the Bloomberg survey.

But again, conditions elsewhere are worse than in the US. The ECB next meets on Dec 4, with opinion wildly divided on whether itthe ECB will cut interest rates. IMF managing director Strauss-Kahn said the ECB has room to cut rates. He told the BBC "In some parts of the world--Japan, the United States--interest rates have been cut very much, but it can be done more aggressively in other parts. I think now [the ECB has] room to decrease the interest rate, but nevertheless the stress has to be put on fiscal policy." This presumably means each country has to give up fiscal prudence. But we thought that was already a given--?

With the market seeing rate cuts as the right thing to do and not a currency-negative, we are faced with the perverse idea that if the ECB doesn’t cut in Dec, the euro exchange rate will be punished. This seems backwards of the usual response to rate cuts but it has justification today. Cuts are virtuous and refusing to cut is pig-headed. So did Strauss-Kahn give us a clue? Yes, maybe, that Trichet and/or the policy board are reluctant to cut a second time in as many months out of fear of looking panicky or some other reason. Watch for additional news about the ECB attitude toward a cut. If the policy board is looking reluctant, the euro rate can drop another 500 points. In fact, general sluggishness on the European front is inspiring some wild forecasts of a crashing euro. BNP Paribas has a forecast of euro to dollar exchange rate to go to 1.07 by the end of Q1. Holy Toledo!

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Barbara Rockefeller

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Net-net, the US dollar Rate is at or near a turning point. It seems to be holding ground against the euro, pound and yen

Foreign Exchange Outlook : We get the US service sector PMI this morning, probably a drop to 47 from 50.2 in Sept for the 6th drop in 10 months, according to Bloomberg. We say the big picture will dominate today rather than data confirming the US slowdown. The big picture includes the reception of the US Treasury refunding, political things like Obama’s choice of TreasSec and/or intentions to propose a stimulus plan right away, and the new perspective on rate cuts.

Rate cuts first: The Australian dollar was rewarded with a rise after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut by more than expected. This is the opposite of the usual response under normal conditions. Commentary from the UK indicates that a larger-than-expected rate cut by the Bank of England tomorrow, even as much as 100 bp, would be sterling-favorable because it shows the government to be "pro-active." The market has priced in a 50 bp cut, but of 60 economists surveyed by Blomberg, 8 expect 100 bp and 6 expect 75 bp. A UBS analyst writes “In times of economic stress markets may become more concerned by future growth rates as a driver of future returns than movements in cash rates.”

Evidently a global recession/possible Depression is sufficiently well-appreciated that rate cuts are seen as foreign currency supportive.

Might the same thing happen to the euro exchange rate tomorrow, and might the market be expecting just that response? Yes. Also, the following day we get the US payrolls report, expected to be bad but perhaps not fully priced in yet. We think the euro downtrend looks safe, but on the intermediate chart (360 minutes), the euro exchange rate is pressing against the linreg channel top and we need to see a level under the last intermediate low (1.2523) to feel confident. It’s not unheard of for a currency to move that much in two days, especially given the wild swings lately. In fact, the current average daily true range is 158 points, so over two days we could easily reach 1.2500. But everything has to go right for the us dollar to achieve the 1.2500 level before the mud hits the fan early Friday morning in the form of payrolls.

The Obama Effect: We may not hear before then of any Obama stimulus plan in the remaining months of the current Congress. (Congress remains out for another two weeks but technically has two months after that). The Obama plan is probably a $175 billion package including outright subsidy checks to consumers (which didn’t work all that well in April), a tax credit for job creation, and a big public works initiative - roads, bridges and schools.

Should we be worried that an Obama plan will also contain Hooverish measures against free trade or reactionary unionism? Probably not.

His advisors include former Fed chair Volcker, former TreasSec Summers, Warren Buffett, George Soros, and former TreasSec Rubin, who has said Obama understands that any government, especially one proposing big spending, needs to announce a commitment to long-term fiscal discipline. Failure to do so undermines the bond market and the dollar exchange rate. This was Rubin’s stance in the Clinton administration and he was right. As far as we know, Obama takes expert advice like this.

A funny monkey wrench is the works is the upcoming (Nov 15) summit of G20 in Washington, proposed by French Pres Sarkozy and hijacked by Bush. We expect nothing to come out of this meeting but hot air.

Net-net, the US dollar Rate is at or near a turning point. It seems to be holding ground against the euro, pound and yen, but not against the "riskier" currencies Australian Dollars and Canadian Dollars. If hope rises of a US recovery via Obama or anything else, the Australian Dollars and Canadian Dollars upswings will continue as risk appetite comes roaring back.

Does this lead the others?

Possible.

Ironically, the prospect of recovery in the US can be US dollar negative.

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Barbara Rockefeller
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Foreign Exchange Outlook

Foreign Exchange Outlook : The US dollar has two big black clouds hanging over it. First is the election and then there is payrolls.

Today the US election is everything. If it’s an Obama landslide and/or if there is no dispute over the fairness of the counts, that would remove a black cloud hanging over the dollar from the last election. We also want to hear right away - this week - the name of the incoming Treasury Secretary and some broad outlines of the financial plan. A $1 trillion budget deficit is very big dollar exchange rate negative. Assurances of an effort to balance the budget would go a long way, even if they are not really credible.

Once the election is over, attention will turn immediately to ADP’s forecast tomorrow of the payrolls numbers on Friday. Market News gets a survey average result of a drop of 200,000 in Oct, but estimates range from –85,000 to –230,000. The jobless rate, the worst fiction in the data pantheon, will probably rise from 6.1% in Sept to 6.3% but perhaps as much as 6.4%. Realistically, it’s probably 8-10% already if the count were done properly.

There is a consensus of opinion from Foreign Exchange commentators everywhere on the US election. Calyon wrote "We think a decisive win in the Senate for the Democrats as well a win for Senator Obama, as the polls indicate, would boost risk appetite as the risk of political paralysis will be reduced going forward.” Separately, UBS says the focus will shift to the "transition between administrations and how the president-elect handles the growing budget deficit."

Let’s say McCain wins and payrolls show a gigantic drop of 230,000 or more. The US dollar exchange rate would be toast by noon on Friday - to the recent high of 1.3298 - on the prospect of more shooting wars, endless deficits, and probably a disputed vote count. Can an Obama win offset really bad payrolls data? Yes, maybe. If Obama wins, the US dollar has a real chance of proceeding on its upward trend on "fundamentals" other than the safe-haven flow from deleveraging, or "forced liquidation," as Jimmy Rogers puts it. In other words, the US dollar would get a positive reason to be firm rather than a negative one. As we all know from the Economist’s poll and other surveys, the world would vote for Obama if it could. This is just a funny tidbit except in the context of confidence in US management of the economy and thus potential capital inflows.

We could name a third black cloud - Crude Oil.

With a new embrace of risk and stock markets generally unwilling to accept the recession/deflation/Depression scenario, it’s possible that oil stops falling. It’s hard to say how big a factor this might be. To sell dollars in a knee-jerk “because” oil is rising sounds stupid, but some folks do it. At the least it can have an effect for a few days. A bigger effect is on the US current account deficit (remember that?). We need oil prices to fall to avoid another round of twin deficit talk.

Even with falling oil prices, the current account deficit has structural characteristics that make it slow to fall. And with the appetite for a doubling of long-term debt unknown (hence talk of revising a 3-year note to bridge maturities), the US could actually face funding difficulties. The Treasury capital flow report has not been dollar exchange rate friendly lately, although it’s distorted by emergency cash–raising, revulsion from Freddie/Fannie, and the like. But in the Big Picture, the US needs to show progress on the current account if funding needs are doubling. It’s not clear how that can be accomplished. Again, we have to say that longer-term, it’s all too easy to make the case against the dollar. But in the meanwhile, keep the faith. Things are worse elsewhere.

A big bad Event can easily restore the US dollars fortunes, and if we have learned anything over the past year, it is to expect surprises

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Barbara Rockefeller
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The US dollar will continue to benefit from the financial market crisis

Foreign Exchange Outlook : Foreign Exchange market analysts say the market will be “distracted” tomorrow by the US election but it won’t have a big effect on prices. We are not so sure. For one thing, the market likes big, decisive actions. A landslide by Obama, which is a real possibility, will be rewarded. But the longer-lasting effects of the election are yet to come. They pertain to political philosophy as much as economic outcomes, and here’s how:

We review a ton of headlines and skim hundreds of stories looking for the gold nuggets that form the basis of an foreign exchange outlook. Sometimes it’s all just noise, especially lately when it’s hard to know what is critical and what is not. The government “saving” Bear Stearns but allowing Lehman to fail was obviously a big deal but we didn’t see at the time that it would have such an enormous ripple effect. Now everyone blames the Lehman failure for consequences still coming out (like the HBOS write-down today and tomorrow’s data on credit default swaps). Today we have a tidbit from Economy.com that hadn’t sunk in yet but we now see as the single most important thing for the next 9-18 months. Here it is again: “Nationwide, 7.3 million American homeowners are expected to default on their US mortgages between 2008 and 2010, about triple the usual rate, according to Moody's Economy.com, a research firm. Some 4.3 million of those are expected to lose their homes.”

With 111.16 million households in the US as of 2007, the default rate is 6.6% of all households. The number of new homeless households is 3.8% of total households. Quite apart from the effect on unemployment, retail sales, home prices and other standard economic variables, think about the effect of this many new homeless households on national health, crime rates, and the socio-political Zeitgeist.

The Far Right dislikesthe idea of a social contract-the US is a country of individualists. You can’t have individualism as your core ruling principle and then provide a nanny state, aka socialism. Bush One tried to soften this with “compassionate conservatism,” and we saw how well that worked out with Bush Two in New Orleans. Nobody doubts that if Katrina had happened in (white, Republican) Orange County, the place would be rebuilt better than ever by now. The bottom line for the US is the question of what should the people expect of government in times of crisis as well as regular times? Some things can be provided only by government, like national defense, transcontinental highways, and so on. Should the state also “take care of” these 4.3 million people who will become homeless? We say the US is about to give itself a lesson in Political Science 101. We fondly imagined this debate would end with the election tomorrow, but surely we cannot brush under the rug such a high number of homeless households as 4.3 million.

We probably need to assume that a McCain presidency would mean a policy of letting the private market solve the homeless problem. Foreign Exchange Markets basically don’t like poor people, so this simply would not work.

Assuming we get Obama and assuming he believes in a social contract that deals with 4.3 million homeless households, the turmoil is going to be horrendous. Conservatives want to prevent the “Europeanization” of America. Economists worry, too - can it be done without the price distortion and misallocation of resources that are so prevalent in Europe? In France, for example, the state requires a failing company to remain in operation to provide employment.

This is bad business and stupid public policy. Surely the US wouldn’t go that far-?

Something very big is happening.

It’s not clear what effect it will have on the US dollar exchange rate, but longer run, a Europeanized America will have even bigger deficits and without the safety net of the Maastricht Treaty and Stability Pact, not to mention the single central bank mandate of controlling inflation. We complain that “Europe” lacks region-wide institutions, hence the scattershot national bank rescue plans, but the eurozone does have that one, giant, splendid thing named “fiscal prudence.” With the world falling down around our ears, nobody much cares about fiscal prudence today, but that won’t last forever. And it can get worse. Maybe the number of homeless households is not 4.3 million but double that. Maybe the government rescue plans only delay getting the true housing market bottom and the end of bank consolidation, both prerequisites for recovery. Maybe sovereign wealth funds and others lose confidence in the US and stop buying all the trillions in new paper the US Treasury will issue to pay for it.

Longer run, you can see that we can easily make the case for the dollar exchange rate falling out of favor. In the meanwhile, falling commodity prices, impending recession worse in other places than in the more robust US, and additional shoes left to drop also outside the US all imply the US dollar will continue to benefit from the financial market crisis. In particular, we expect the emerging markets - inlcuding China - to get harder hit than anyone is now expecting.

If and when one of them hits the wall, the dollar will be the immediate beneficiary.

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Barbara Rockefeller
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