Friday, January 30, 2009

Factors for the euro exchange rates decline

Foreign Exchange - US Dollar, Euro and Pounds Sterling Outlook,

The US dollar exchange rate rose yesterday across the board - but only fractionally against the yen - on a flood of bad economic data just about everywhere and US stock indices falling back. Oil fell, too. It might be fairer to say the euro exchange rate was the center of attention rather than the dollar exchange rate, since the euro fell against the pound, yen and Swiss franc as well as the US dollar.

Factors for the euro exchange rates decline included its failure to reach beyond the early high around 9 am yesterday at 1.3179 to the previous day's high at 1.3328. Around noon the euro made a big jump down from 1.3079 to 1.2930, breaking the previous day's low, and then it was all over for technical traders - they had confirmation, however simple, of the next direction.
We don’t have the timestamp but evidently George Soros told an Austrian newspaper (Der Standard) that the euro may not survive unless the EU pushes for a global plan to deal with toxic debt. Bloomberg picked up the story and it apparently scared a sizeable amount of risk aversion back into market sentiment. Actually, Soros is not saying anything more drastic than the British, who are also appealing for a global solution (at G20), but such is the magic of the Soros name that traders didn’t want to be bothered with the facts. He didn’t say the EU needs a solution to its own toxic paper problem, although that is what the market heard.

Bye For Now

Barbara Rockefeller
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