Foreign Exchange - Currency Outlook
An announcement of a solution for the Greek debt problem is only that—an announcement. It will probably have the usual announcement effect - foreign exchange traders buying euros. A more positive tone and a sense of confidence that the EU/EMU will save Greece from itself is a good thing but only temporary. Words are good, in markets, but actions are better. Observers want to pore over specifics and if history is any guide, we are not going to get specifics today, or maybe ever.
Disillusion could set in very quickly. The bond and forex markets are not going to sit around for long basking the glow of apparent solidarity - they want details, and plenty of them. We remain deeply worried that the market will buy into a public relations exercise that will carry the euro exchange rate back up over 1.4000 to perhaps 1.4350. So far it looks like the market is being skeptical, but it’s never wise to count on traders making deep analysis on which to base trades.
Normally the shallow explanation is the one adopted, at least at first. If the market doesn’t accept the "accord" today, risk aversion will take off and and fx traders will be buying us dollars. This is what "should" happen but we have to wait and see.
Pounds to US Dollars = 1.5690
Pounds to Euros = 1.1466
Euro to Pounds = 0.8718
Pounds to Australian Dollars = 1.7624
Bye For Now
Barbara Rockefeller
Foreign Exchange Trading
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